Wiley's new Handbook of Decision Making is a vital reference text for all students and professionals of management, organization and decision making. The handbook offers a wide range of theoretical and empirical approaches to the understanding of organizational and strategic decisions. Contributors are internationally known experts drawn from North America, Canada and Europe who have spent many years in the study of decision making, and decision making relevant topics. We believe the handbook will become a tour de force in the understanding decision making, offering a wide variety of perspectives, topics, and summative understanding of the field. Chapters in the Handbook were prepared by the leading experts in their field and include cutting edge empirical, theoretical, and review chapters. The chapters bring together for the first time a critical mass of writing on decision making as an organizational and research activity. The Editors are two of the leading international experts in decision making and contribute to the Handbook with five original Chapters that offer an appraisal of the field and suggestions for research, as well as the current status of decision making practice and suggestion for improvement.
A proven decision management methodology for increased profits and lowered risks Knowledge Automation: How to Implement Decision Management in Business Processes describes a simple but comprehensive methodology for decision management projects, which use business rules and predictive analytics to optimize and automate small, high-volume business decisions. It includes Decision Requirements Analysis (DRA), a new method for taking the crucial first step in any IT project to implement decision management: defining a set of business decisions and identifying all the information—business knowledge and data—required to make those decisions. Describes all the stages in automating business processes, from business process modeling down to the implementation of decision services Addresses how to use business rules and predictive analytics to optimize and automate small, high-volume business decisions Proposes a simple «top-down» method for defining decision requirements and representing them in a single diagram Shows how clear requirements can allow decision management projects to be run with reduced risk and increased profit Nontechnical and accessible, Knowledge Automation reveals how DRA is destined to become a standard technique in the business analysis and project management toolbox.
The modern manager faces a bewildering range of challenges every single day. Their ability to make critical decisions, often under pressure, can directly determine the future success of the company and their career. It is therefore surprising that so few managers take the time to learn the art of decision making. In this groundbreaking book from Caroline Wang, readers will learn that quality decision making is a competence that can be acquired according to a simple framework. The framework is practical and easy-to-remember, consisting of two acronyms: GPA and IPO. GPA for decision content quality (Goal, Priority, Alternatives); and IPO for decision process quality (Information, People, Objective reasoning). The book places emphasis on leading a team to make decisions, even though the framework can be used for personal and individual decisions. By using this common decision-making framework, managers and leaders will gain credibility and team support for the decision, will confidently articulate, promote, and defend the decision, and will have made the necessary preparations for successful implementation when the decision-making process is complete. This proven framework from one of Asia's most dynamic leadership experts will improve the quality of your decisions and change the way you do business.
Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called “collaborative decision-making”, at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several of which are described in order to calculate or simulate solutions or global solutions for decision-making modification. Definitions and new trends for these models are given, along with types of systems. Contents 1. Alteration of Decision-Making Processes in Organizations. 2. New Decision-Making Processes. 3. The Need to Cooperate. 4. Cooperative Decision-Making. 5. Activity Support Systems. 6. Cooperative Decision Support Systems: CDSSS. About the Authors Pascale Zaraté is Professor at Toulouse 1 Capitole University, France. She conducts her research at the IRIT Laboratory and is the Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Decision Support Systems Technologies. She is co-chair of the European Working Group on DSS and has published several studies and books.
A proven decision-making system guides readers to the right choice every time Make Up Your Mind provides author Hal Mooz’s proprietary system for decision making. This approach consists of three decision-making models, including: the Decision Type Model, which characterizes what is at stake with any decision; the Decision Solution Model, which frames the most suitable alternatives; and the Decision Judgment Model, which provides ten bases for judging alternatives, some of which may be defensible and others that, although popular, may not be defensible to challenge. These models guide the reader's thinking to the most promising alternatives and the best choice. A decision fit person enjoys the benefit of thinking clearly about decisions and their outcomes and is competent to act knowledgeably and decisively about creating the alternatives and judging them appropriately. Become decision fit. Think clearly and act decisively on your own decisions and help others to do the same.
Discover the best approaches for making business decisions Today's business leaders have to face the facts—you can't separate leadership from decision making. The importance of making decisions, no matter how big or small, cannot be overstated. Decision Making For Dummies is a candid resource that helps leaders understand the impact of their choices, not only on business, but also on their credibility and reputation. Designed for managers, business owners, and anyone else who makes tough decisions on a daily basis, this guide helps you figure out if the decisions you're making are the right ones. In addition to helping you explore how to evaluate your choices, Decision Making For Dummies covers ways to receive support for decision making, delves into various decision-making styles, reviews the importance of sifting through data and information, and includes information on ways to engage others and make decisions collectively. Being in charge can be challenging, but with this guide, you don't have to go it alone. Discusses the effects of decision making and outlines the considerations that must be made to gain trust and confidence Demonstrates ways to communicate particularly sensitive decisions, and offers approaches for making bold decisions that challenge the status quo Delves into the risks and benefits of certain decisions, and shows readers the best ways to evaluate choices Outlines smart strategies for engaging others and drawing them into the decision-making process Crucial decisions need to be made every day in the business world, so there's no time to waste. Make Decision Making For Dummies your primary resource for learning to choose your actions wisely and confidently.
An easy to implement, practical, and proven risk management methodology for project managers and decision makers Drawing from the author's work with several major and mega capital projects for Royal Dutch Shell, TransCanada Pipelines, TransAlta, Access Pipeline, MEG Energy, and SNC-Lavalin, Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers reveals how to implement a consistent application of risk methods, including probabilistic methods. It is based on proven training materials, models, and tools developed by the author to make risk management plans accessible and easily implemented. Written by an experienced risk management professional Reveals essential risk management methods for project teams and decision makers Packed with training materials, models, and tools for project management professionals Risk Management has been identified as one of the nine content areas for Project Management Professional (PMP®) certification. Yet, it remains an area that can get bogged down in the real world of project management. Practical and clearly written, Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers equips project managers and decision makers with a practical understanding of the basics of risk management as they apply to project management. (PMP and Project Management Professional are registered marks of the Project Management Institute, Inc.)
Making a decision, of any importance, is never simple. On the one hand, specialists in decision theory do not come within the reach of most policy makers and, secondly, there are very few books on pragmatic decision that are not purely anecdotal. In addition, there is virtually no book that provides a link between decision-making and action. This book provides a bridge between the latest results in artificial intelligence, neurobiology, psychology and decision-making for action. What is the role of intuition or emotion? What are the main psychological biases of which we must be wary? How can we avoid being manipulated? What is the proper use of planning? How can we remain rational even if one is not an expert in probabilities? Perhaps more importantly for managers, how does one go from decision to action? So many questions fundamental to the practice of decision-making are addressed. This book dissects all issues that arise almost daily for decision-makers, at least for major decisions. Drawing on numerous examples, this book answers, in plain language and imagery, all your questions. The final chapter takes the form of a brief reminder – everything you have to remember to be a good decision-maker.
A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and financial forces altering the economic landscape Financial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment. Unfortunately, all too often, both private and public sector decision-makers view their decisions as one-off responses and fail to see their decisions within the context of an evolving decision-making framework. In Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting, John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo and one of the top 5 economic forecasters according to Bloomberg News and USA Today, skillfully puts this discipline in perspective. Details realistic, decision-making approaches and applications under a broad set of economic scenarios Analyzes monetary policy and addresses the impact of financial regulations Examines business cycles and how to identify economic trends, how to deal with uncertainty and manage risk, the building blocks of growth, and strategies for innovation Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting details the real-world application of economic principles and financial strategy in making better business decisions.
Decision theory provides a formal framework for making logical choices in the face of uncertainty. Given a set of alternatives, a set of consequences, and a correspondence between those sets, decision theory offers conceptually simple procedures for choice. This book presents an overview of the fundamental concepts and outcomes of rational decision making under uncertainty, highlighting the implications for statistical practice. The authors have developed a series of self contained chapters focusing on bridging the gaps between the different fields that have contributed to rational decision making and presenting ideas in a unified framework and notation while respecting and highlighting the different and sometimes conflicting perspectives. This book: Provides a rich collection of techniques and procedures. Discusses the foundational aspects and modern day practice. Links foundations to practical applications in biostatistics, computer science, engineering and economics. Presents different perspectives and controversies to encourage readers to form their own opinion of decision making and statistics. Decision Theory is fundamental to all scientific disciplines, including biostatistics, computer science, economics and engineering. Anyone interested in the whys and wherefores of statistical science will find much to enjoy in this book.
Generally, books on mathematical statistics are restricted to the case of independent identically distributed random variables. In this book however, both this case AND the case of dependent variables, i.e. statistics for discrete and continuous time processes, are studied. This second case is very important for today’s practitioners. Mathematical Statistics and Stochastic Processes is based on decision theory and asymptotic statistics and contains up-to-date information on the relevant topics of theory of probability, estimation, confidence intervals, non-parametric statistics and robustness, second-order processes in discrete and continuous time and diffusion processes, statistics for discrete and continuous time processes, statistical prediction, and complements in probability. This book is aimed at students studying courses on probability with an emphasis on measure theory and for all practitioners who apply and use statistics and probability on a daily basis.
Decision trees or backing a hunch – smart advice on the art and science of decision making.
Making Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions. Introduces readers to key aspects of decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions Presentation of material encourages readers to imagine a situation and make a decision or a judgment Offers a broad coverage of the subject including major insights from several sub-disciplines: microeconomic theory, decision theory, game theory, social choice, statistics, psychology, and philosophy Explains these insights informally in a language that has minimal mathematical notation or jargon, even when describing and interpreting mathematical theorems Critically assesses the theory presented within the text, as well as some of its critiques Includes a web resource for teachers and students
Reinforcement learning (RL) and adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) has been one of the most critical research fields in science and engineering for modern complex systems. This book describes the latest RL and ADP techniques for decision and control in human engineered systems, covering both single player decision and control and multi-player games. Edited by the pioneers of RL and ADP research, the book brings together ideas and methods from many fields and provides an important and timely guidance on controlling a wide variety of systems, such as robots, industrial processes, and economic decision-making.